Clever Geek Handbook
14 January 2026

When Organizing Isn't Enough

Recommendation

Almost everyone wants to become better organized. Thorough reorganization involves getting rid of the assorted rubbish that weighs you down and prevents you from moving ahead efficiently. Some of this junk is physical, but not all of it. Your junk can include an overbooked schedule, a mountain of action items that never get done and bad habits that steal your time. Organization expert Julie Morgenstern developed the “SHED” system to help people eliminate the messes that accumulate in their lives. Do you want to get rid of the bulky load of bricks you’re carrying? Morgenstern can teach you how. Her approach to organizing is pragmatic and highly useful. She doesn’t dwell on working smarter, improving your schedule or completing action items. Instead, she focuses on ridding yourself of your heavy load of junk, whatever it is, so you can start over fresh and light. BooksInShort believes her book is perfect for anyone who wants a new, uncluttered start.

Take-Aways

  • The “SHED” program enables you to get rid of the possessions, time commitments and bad habits that have become burdens in your life so you can start anew.
  • Use the program to make a change or when unwanted change is thrust upon you.
  • SHED stands for “separate” your treasures, “heave” your trash, “embrace” yourself, and “drive into the future.”
  • Before you shed, develop a new theme for the life you want in the future.
  • Inventory the three primary “shedding points”: your possessions, your activities and your bad habits.
  • Assign each item, to-do entry and habit an attachment score and an obsolescence score, so you know what you can discard and what to keep.
  • To shed properly, hold onto only 10% to 20% of what currently constitutes your life.
  • Once you start to shed, you will feel energized. Don’t look back. Discard your burdens.
  • When you are done, spend some quiet time reflecting on what you want and then begin pursuing your real goals.
  • Make the shed program an ongoing process, not a one-time target.

Summary

How to Change

Are you in a rut? Do you know some type of change is in order, even if you are not sure what it should be? If you’re in this situation, you can use the transformative “SHED” process to change your life and move ahead. Shedding can blast you out of your inertia and supercharge you.

“Clinging to the old, the irrelevant and stagnant will bog you down, hold you back and make you feel stuck.”

It can help anyone who undergoes a significant transition, such as starting a company, moving to a new home, getting married or having a child. It can help people deal with unanticipated changes, such as divorce, loss of income or sudden illness. And it is the ideal tool to help people reach self-fulfillment. Are you ready to shed? You are if you want a new life course but don’t know how to start; if you recently made a significant life change but feel no different than before; or if some major life change is being forced upon you.

“No one lets go of anything without reaching for something else.”

Using the shed program, you can get rid of the possessions, activities, action items and habits that burden you. Like a boxer getting down to fighting weight, ditch everything that weighs you down. Shedding is a deliberate, deliberative process. It is holistic and encompassing. You do not throw away everything willy-nilly from your old life, and strike out blindly for some vague and unexamined new future. Shedding provides a framework for meaningful change in four steps:

  1. Separate all your “treasures” – Examine everything that occupies your life and makes it what it is. This includes your possessions, your actions and your habits. Categorize everything in your life according to attachment (whether it energizes and fulfills you) and obsolescence (whether it still supports you or if it drains you of needed vigor).
  2. Heave all your “trash” – After you identify which treasures to keep, get rid of all of the possessions, activities and bad habits that impede you or slow you down.
  3. Embrace the remarkable individual that you are – You are not someone who is defined by possessions or titles. Your self-worth has nothing to do with your things.
  4. Drive into the future with ambition and hope – Begin to fill your existence with only those possessions, activities, habits and experiences that reinforce the ambitious “theme” you have chosen for your new life.

What Is Your Theme?

A transition into a new life requires careful planning. First, develop a theme for your future life that expresses your goals, your purpose and your broad plan for the future. Typical themes might include finding love, securing career advancement, expanding your boundaries, living healthily, or even pursuing adventure, serenity or learning. Use three guiding principles to find your theme:

  1. Take a big-picture approach – Encapsulate all aspects of your life.
  2. Your theme should be simple – Create a lens you can use to view and evaluate your life.
  3. Don’t shortchange yourself – Your theme should represent your highest aspirations, not just the bare minimum you feel you can manage. At this stage, don’t worry about the obstacles. Aim for the stars. Be willing to look deep inside yourself to discover your theme. Don’t be afraid.
“Bad habits steal hours every day.”

Once you discover a workable theme for the future, pick through your treasures and detritus to get rid of the deadweight and clutter. What areas of your life pull you down? Re-envision these stagnant areas as “points of entry.” Through the shed process, you will burst through these bogs into bright, new vistas of energy, purpose and vitality. Points of entry can be rooms full of stuff you don’t need, poor habits that get in your way, or activities that consume your time and focus.

“Bad habits are behaviors that load your schedule with burdensome commitments, tasks and responsibilities, forcing you to continue playing roles that are no longer a good fit.”

Points of entry give shedding a focus. Use them to free your physical and mental space, and revitalize yourself. Some points of entry offer more opportunity than others. Shedding will help you choose the best ones to attack. You’ll find your entry points in three zones: your possessions and the physical space you occupy, your daily schedule and the activities that take your time, and your habits and way of doing things. Free up space in these areas:

  1. Physical – This is the easiest place to begin. Inventory your furniture, clothing, kitchen cookware and utensils, storage items, books, magazines, physical files and all your other belongings. Place checkmarks next to the things that detract from your theme.
  2. Schedule – Identify the elements of your schedule and your to-do list that drain your energy. This may include assignments that are no longer appropriate, meaningless meetings, time-consuming committee activities and old obligations.
  3. Habits – Bad habits steal your energy and time, and deflect your productivity. Of the three points of entry, bad habits are the toughest to control and overcome. They are deeply ingrained in how you do things. They represent adaptive coping mechanisms. Once, they served a useful purpose. The fact that they are no longer useful does not mean they are easy to eradicate. When you do get rid of them, you will free up immense psychic energy and valuable time. You will no longer feel heavily burdened.

Getting Started

People usually start the shedding process in the physical realm, the easiest area to find things to shed. However, you may wish to shed bad habits first or drop burdensome items from your schedule. Determine which points of entry offer you the best “space gain” and start there. As you free up space and time, you will immediately feel less burdened. You will have more energy later to attack those areas that are not as promising.

“Bad habits wreak havoc on our ability to shed because they are often the root cause of our cluttered space and overcrowded schedules.”

To start with physical items, go through every room of your home and office – all the physical spaces you inhabit. List all probable points of entry and inventory the items in each place. Points of entry could include books, furniture, files, tools, clothing, you name it. Determine the point of entry’s size factor – the bigger the area it takes up, the more space you can liberate. For example, a mechanic is likely to have a large tool area. Assign each item an obsolescence percentage and an attachment level. For example, an old hat you no longer wear may rate 95% on the obsolescence scale and an “easy” on the attachment scale, so you can get rid of it with no difficulty.

“Much of the difficulty in shedding is simply getting started.”

To attack your schedule and to-do items, review your normal daily activities on an hour-by-hour basis. Possible points of entry include meetings, tasks, work activities, chores and other calendared items. Determine the size ratings for each point of entry. Now, inventory each scheduled and to-do item in broad categories, and assign obsolescence and attachment ratings. This analysis often awakens people to the fact that they spend up to half their time on needless tasks – activities that do not further the achievement of their broad goals.

“Developing your list of treasure guidelines is similar to preparing a packing list for a long vacation, or a shopping list before going to the supermarket.”

To address bad habits, precisely track your time for a few days. Record everything you do and the time it takes. Look for nonproductive activities that interfere with the time available to accomplish your main goals. Using your log, develop a points-of-entry list as you did for your physical items and schedule commitments. Write the main points of entry, the size of the habit (too much TV watching would be a “large” size), and your obsolescence and attachment ratings.

“Separate the Treasures”

Now you have an inventory of your possessions, activities and habits. You have rated them according to how much room they take up in your life, how important they are and how useful – or obsolescent – they may be. Now focus on getting rid of the possessions, activities and habits that weigh you down. In your point-of-entry inventory lists, you will find many “treasures” with high attachment scores. To unburden yourself, be prepared to dump 80% to 90% of them. If you shed less, you will still feel bogged down. Only hold on to those things, activities and habits that supply you with energy and purpose, that are useful to your new theme, or that are inspirational or irreplaceable mementoes.

“Your treasures help to provide the most complete picture of who you are.”

Determining which physical possessions to unload will probably be easiest, at least emotionally. However, be prepared to devote a great deal of physical energy, time and effort to the actual removal process. Practically, disposing of furniture, books, clothes and other things is not easy. Do it properly.

“The easiest way to find value in the clutter is to slow down and think back to the time when it didn’t exist.”

Dealing with scheduled activities is even harder. Develop some useful “treasure guidelines” to sort out worthwhile activities and to-do items from those that are unnecessary, obsolete or not worth the effort. Ask yourself why you assumed various commitments. What was your original motivation? Does it apply to your new theme? If not, eliminate it. Use this same process for your bad habits. Why did you first become attached to them? What problems did they solve? You cannot eliminate bad habits until you understand what they supply in your life. Once you know that, you can find productive substitutes.

“Heave the Trash”

Now you understand what you have and you’ve separated the treasures from the trifles. It’s time to unburden yourself of your trash. Don’t hesitate. Be radical. Get rid of unneeded stuff quickly. Don’t drag it out. Remove all the unnecessary items from a particular entry point. If you leave some “stuff” there while you move to a different entry point, it may quickly become a new stagnant area. Develop a good “exit plan” for your physical possessions. You may have to donate or trash your stuff. Just get rid of it. It’s in your way.

“Heaving can be daunting but it can also be tremendously energizing, fulfilling and transformative.”

For tasks and to-dos, delegate whatever you can. Diminish the level of your involvement in other activities or delete them entirely. Expect to ruffle a few feathers. This is often unavoidable. For example, maybe you always participate in a 4 p.m. meeting on Fridays with your colleagues. You now see that it isn’t necessary. Let everyone know that you’re not coming and don’t backslide. For most people, bad habits represent the primary time-stealers. They also are the toughest items to shed. Breaking a bad habit usually takes about a month. Is watching too much television your bad habit? Resolve not to watch any TV for 30 days. Stick to it. Use this 30-day approach to eliminate any bad habit. If you incessantly check e-mail, swearing off entirely may be impractical, so allow yourself just to check it during a few prescribed periods throughout the day. Eliminating bad habits is never easy. Don’t be too hard on yourself if you don’t succeed in the first 30 days. Set up a new 30-day period and try again.

“Embrace Your Identity”

You are now free of the physical possessions, activities and bad habits that have held you back. You feel light, and ready for something new. You are prepared to institute your life’s new theme. At this exciting new point, you’ll naturally want to strike out quickly and boldly in new directions. But like any new journey, you should take things slowly at first. Instead of jumping into another activity, spend some quiet time with yourself. Become centered. Take advantage of this period to be introspective and find out who you really are. Examine and embrace yourself. Build your confidence for your exciting new journey. Develop the discipline you need to achieve your new plans and goals.

“Drive Yourself Forward”

The time has finally come to begin your journey into your new life. You have already chosen a theme for what you want your life to be in the future. Now that you are free of your burdens, don’t be afraid to also explore new experiences and activities that may not relate specifically to your theme. Treasure your time during this period of exploration and self-actualization. The world that awaits you is diverse and fascinating. Try new things. You are a bird with new wings, so fly a little. Afterward, you can begin to connect with your new-theme activities. Take a trial-and-error approach. Experiment. Don’t rush. Explore your theme and all its exciting new opportunities.

“The nuts and bolts of physically removing items from your space can be even more formidable than the emotional aspect of parting with once-beloved possessions.”

The shed process has given you an open road in your life and your schedule. So start your journey. Focus on the activities and interests that excite you the most. As you charge ahead, be prepared for setbacks. Some of your old habits and activities may reappear. This is the anticipated “30% slip.” Don’t be dismayed; everyone experiences some temporary slippage. When you start to slip, put the shed program right back to work. It represents a process, not a solitary end point. It is a valuable tool that you can use over and over to stay loose and free. When new burdens arise, as they surely will, you know precisely what to do: Just start to shed again.

About the Author

Julie Morgenstern, speaker and consultant, teaches people how to get organized. She served on the board of the National Association of Professional Organizers.

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When Organizing Isn't Enough

Book When Organizing Isn't Enough

SHED Your Stuff, Change Your Life

Fireside,
 


14 January 2026

It Starts with One

Recommendation

The Greek philosopher Heraclitus taught that nothing is permanent except change. But, in business, even attempts to change aren’t permanent – in fact, corporate transformations are usually either temporary or doomed at the outset. Executives order organizational shifts, assuming that their employees will institute them immediately as instructed and that fruitful transformation will thus ensue promptly. Unfortunately, that seldom happens because human beings, including your staffers, strongly resist giving up comfortable patterns. They will hew to familiar paths unless you or your “change champions” intercept them, one by one, explain J. Stewart Black and Hal B. Gregersen. Their book on organizational transformation makes it clear that companies cannot alter the status quo unless leaders can convince employees to adjust their mindsets and processes first. The authors outline an approach to corporate change rooted in this concept. While their plan is not exactly quick and easy, it is methodical and logical. BooksInShort recommends their book to executives and managers who want to direct and control organizational change by working with their employees instead of dictating to them. Why? Because, say Black and Gregersen, one way works and the other way doesn’t.

Take-Aways

  • Change is a universal reality in business, but it is hard to achieve.
  • Stagnant businesses cannot stay competitive.
  • Many executives mistakenly believe that if they issue a change directive, a transformation will magically occur.
  • Three barriers impede organizational change: “failure to see,” “failure to move” and “failure to finish.”
  • Employees – and companies – persist in utilizing trusted but flawed “mental maps” that quickly go out of date.
  • To bring about meaningful alterations, focus only on core issues.
  • In the beginning of any reform program, employees need constant encouragement to alter their actions and behaviors.
  • At first, they will struggle with new processes and that can ruin your change program.
  • They must viscerally experience the contrast between the old ways and the new ways, and they must understand that their actions matter.
  • Appoint “change champions” to encourage employees during the renewal process.

Summary

True Transformation Starts with Individuals

If your company does not evolve and stay fresh, your competitors will leave it in the dust. But even though change is a life-and-death business issue, most management books discuss it in exactly the wrong way. They characterize reform as an organizational phenomenon, not as a personal one. They make it a matter of command-and-control. Press the right buttons, and your organization will automatically reset and renew itself. Sorry, it’s not that easy.

“Change is extraordinarily difficult, and most attempts to initiate and sustain it fail.”

According to research, most improvement initiatives fail. This happens largely because organizations cannot generate meaningful transformations unless the people within them alter their behaviors and actions first. If your workers are not willing to grow, your new directives won’t work. To build their willingness, try to understand their point of view, communicate with them and praise their efforts along the way. Of course, organizational updating is never easy. It requires a large investment of money, time and effort.

Why Few Change Programs Really Reshape Anything

Often, transformational initiatives that begin with great hopes fail to work because their implementation processes are too complex and comprehensive. To lead a real revolution, keep your processes simple. Don’t try to alter everything at once. Instead, set a realistic goal. Focus on the most crucial factors you want to adjust. Succeed with those alterations and the rest will fall into place. The “fundamentals of change” unfold in four stages:

  1. The old methods work great and people use them skillfully.
  2. Although the old procedures were the right tactics in the past, they will not work so well in the future. Over time, they have become the wrong way to do things.
  3. Start using new behaviors and methods. At first, you will carry them out poorly and that will make you want to return to the old ways.
  4. When you stick with the new approaches, sooner or later you will begin to do things well again – but in a fresh way. That is the nature of change.

Barriers to Change

People instinctively prefer to avoid the unfamiliar and to employ processes that have worked well before, sometimes even if those methods will not work in the future. People use old “mental maps” to guide their future actions. These mental maps often produce a “brain barrier” that makes imposing innovative processes exceedingly difficult. This brain barrier has three components:

“Barrier Number One: Failure to See”

Despite looming competitive threats, your managers and employees may not perceive that they are deadlocked. For example, Motorola ruled the cell phone world at the start of the 1990s. Consumers clamored for its analog StarTac phone, until its competitors introduced digital phones. Motorola’s bosses weren’t worried. They believed that their digital rivals, like Nokia, would not make the heavy investments in infrastructure required to generate a meaningful impact in their market. Motorola’s leaders were mistaken. Six years after Nokia entered the global market for mobile phones, it took first place. Motorola’s brass responded by making more analog phones.

“Unlocking individual change starts and ends with the mental maps people carry in their heads – how they see the organization and their world at work.”

Why didn’t Motorola’s executives understand the magnitude of the digital threat? Instead of accepting the new reality, they were “blinded by the light” of their routine. Their mental map – declaring that people always will prefer analog phones – did not register the new digital competition. Motorola’s leaders could not see anything but their no-longer viable past. Like people, companies do not like to relinquish their mental maps, even if they are wrong. And the longer a company has used a mental map profitably, the harder it is to surrender it.

“Leaders must confront their people and sometimes themselves with key contrasts between the past, present and future versions of the world.”

Breaking through this barrier requires “contrast and confrontation.” Contrast means viewing matters in comparison to each other. Confrontation – not the aggressive physical type – involves the full immersion of all the senses. To help employees abandon their old mental modes, give them new “high contrast” and “high confrontation” data. Managers often get this wrong. They present too much new information and workers don’t know where to focus, so they concentrate on the most familiar data. This just reinforces their old mental maps. Or, managers assume that because they – as leaders – understand the need for taking a new path, so do their staff members.

“Companies tend to err in the direction of sharing change progress with too few people.”

With change, “seeing is not believing...experience is believing,” but only experience that involves multiple senses. To deliver such high confrontation data, focus on the most salient aspects of the need for an upgrade, not on every detail. Build your argument around the “core 20% of what is different.” Graphically illustrate the contrasts between old and new, for example, analog versus digital. Involve the pivotal people you must influence – your change agents – as directly as possible. If your senior managers doubt that the change program really affects customers’ attitudes, take them to a retail outlet so they experience the results first hand. “Alter the mental terrain” of those you depend on to execute change so they immediately, viscerally understand why it is necessary. When people confront information with all five senses, they experience it as completely as possible.

“Barrier No. 2: Failure to Move”

Even when employees finally agree that progress is necessary, often they still do not act. They remain stuck in the grip of powerful inertia, unhappy about leaving their comfortable, old mental maps. Even though their outdated procedures will not reap future benefits, they know how to use them really well – they’ve had years of practice. People understand that, at first, they won’t be able to perform new procedures and processes at the same competency level. They will become novices again and make mistakes. Your change declaration may inadvertently include this message: “Follow me and you will do the right thing and you will do it poorly!” No one wants to pursue an effort presented like that. First, you must persuade your employees that you and the company will help them move beyond any initial stumbles and reclaim their current competence. Use these three steps to instill that belief:

  1. “Destination” – Set a clear target. People will not aim for fuzzy goals. Teach your employees targeted behaviors for situations you anticipate. Be as concrete as possible. For example, if an airline wants to refocus on customer service, it must retrain its gate attendants to be solicitous of passengers’ needs.
  2. “Resources” – Workers can’t execute changes that require skills they don’t have. Teach them new methods they can use professionally. If your call center staffers now must help clients navigate your new Web site, help them master it first.
  3. “Rewards” – Employees need motivational incentives to attain new goals.
“Often one of the greatest obstacles to great future growth is getting employees (including senior executives) to let go of growth drivers from the past.”

To motivate your employees, you must know what matters to them. Use the “ARCTIC Framework of Individual Analysis” to assess their priorities in these areas:

  • “Achievement” – The need to do well and compete favorably.
  • “Relations” – The need to be recognized as special and to be part of a group.
  • “Conceptual/Thinking” – The need to solve problems and to work things out.
  • “Improvement” – The need to grow personally and to try new tactics or skills.
  • “Control” – The need to feel on top of things and to exert influence.

“Barrier No. 3: Failure to Finish”

Many managers think that once staff members understand the need for improvements and take the first progressive steps, they are home free. This is shortsighted. Often, people who begin to work on corporate change never complete the mission; instead, they hit the fail-to-finish barricade. Today’s employees are skeptical of new initiatives. They don’t relate personally to changes in strategy and direction, or understand how remote, top-down plans and directives apply to them. Senior executives may get very excited about a fresh initiative, but in the eyes of the average employee, it’s just one more program touting the “latest best-selling idea,” which may or may not work. Therefore, workers’ initial modernization steps are often halting and short-lived.

“Change champions are needed exactly where the rubber meets the road.”

Employees often tire of consciously shifting the way they work and stop trying soon after they start. They don’t think their individual actions affect the overall organization. They don’t know if the corporate effort is paying off, or if their colleagues are working as hard as they are to alter their behaviors and methods. Indeed, without information telling them otherwise, most employees automatically assume that a new initiative isn’t working. Their attitude is, “If things were going well, we would hear about it. So things must be going poorly.” This line of thinking has a ruinous impact on their motivation.

“As difficult as change is inside the company, often it is even more difficult when it requires changing external parties such as customers and suppliers.”

To keep employees on track, appoint “change champions” to help reinforce positive behaviors and assure people that their efforts really matter. These representatives must operate from the trenches, ready to praise employees who shift their behaviors. Daily reinforcement is crucial to keep your initiative moving. Champions must focus on “desired efforts, not results.” They play a crucial role in the earliest stages of a program when people who are learning new skills are upset that they no longer feel on top of their jobs. Champions encourage employees to stick with their new processes until they regain their sense of competence and accomplishment.

“Organizations don’t change. People change.” [ – Jack Zenger, The Extraordinary Leader]

Promulgate information regularly to tell employees that their efforts are working, and that the company is indeed changing for the better. Create a progress chart so people can see how they are doing. This journey is initially frustrating, so help your employees stay on the right path.

Change Agents

Lower-level employees are not the only ones who might stand in the way of change. Sometimes senior executives have a difficult time letting go of old strategies that once worked well. For example, the Kellogg Company’s leaders always saw its dominance of the cold cereal market as the best indicator of its strength. This was a good mental map for four decades, but in the late 1980s Americans’ breakfast habits shifted. People bought from other cereal companies or just grabbed a bite on the run, but Kellogg’s did not introduce a new breakfast snack from 1964’s Pop-Tarts pastries to 1992’s NutriGrain granola bars. Kellogg’s executives could not see beyond their overpowering mental map, which said cold cereal was everyone’s ideal breakfast. Even as operations grew in some 30 nations, their 1990s mental map still revolved around cold cereal.

“Unless the change is embedded in individuals, it cannot show up in the larger organization in a way that consistently affects behavior and results.” [ – Stephen R. Covey, The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People]

It took a new CEO, Carlos Gutierrez, to open everyone’s eyes. He updated his executives’ mental map to depict cold cereal as just one breakfast option. Gutierrez taught his people that what they ate every morning in Battle Creek, Michigan, was not what everyone else was eating, in Michigan or around the world. In effect, he drew them a new mental map. Perhaps they could now envision people in Japan eating rice, fish and miso soup for breakfast, while folks in India had Khichri, a blend of lentils, rice and spices. He persuaded Kellogg’s leaders that it could no longer bet all of its chips on cold cereal. Gutierrez changed the company’s direction, opened a “food and nutrition research center,” bought the Keebler cookie company and broadened the corporation’s product mix. When he left in 2004 to become U.S. Secretary of Commerce, American cold cereal sales accounted for less than 50% of Kellogg’s booming business, which had expanded to 180 countries.

“If you do not see the need to change, you will not change.”

Many companies make big adjustments only when they endure a crisis or when they must react to some new event, such as losing their competitive dominance. In both instances, the transitions can be disastrously costly. The least costly, most efficient approach is “anticipatory change,” derived from leading events instead of following them. But, no matter what kind of conversion your firm needs, nothing will happen unless and until your employees change first, one by one.

About the Authors

J. Stewart Black and Hal B. Gregersen teach at INSEAD, Europe’s largest M.B.A. organization. Gregersen, co-author of nine other books, was a Fulbright Fellow at the Turku School of Economics.

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It Starts with One

Book It Starts with One

Changing Individuals Changes Organizations

Wharton School Publishing,
First Edition:2002
 


14 January 2026

Iran and the Bomb

Recommendation

The international landscape offers a few terrifying future scenarios, including the vision of Iran with a nuclear bomb. If this threat came to pass, it would destabilize the entire Middle East, disrupt long-standing relationships, threaten other Arab nations and endanger global oil supplies. Therese Delpech takes you on a guided tour of the international diplomatic confrontations surrounding Iran’s persistent, secretive attempts to build a nuclear weapon. This foreign policy nightmare has been building for decades. Yet Iran’s new radical fundamentalist Shia government has adopted a policy of stalling, intimidation and obfuscation to hide its nuclear program. So far, it has worked. Iran has thwarted United Nations inspectors and international diplomats who have been unwilling or unable to force it to reveal its true program and intentions. While the book is dry and academic, if you are interested in foreign policy or lead an international business, BooksInShort recommends this realistic professional overview.

Take-Aways

  • Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected president of Iran to complete the construction of a nuclear weapon.
  • Iran hid its nuclear program from 1985 to 2002, when Iranian exiles disclosed it.
  • To keep its nuclear program under way and deflect international pressure, Iran may have fomented the war in Lebanon in July 2006.
  • Western democracies have been unwilling to confront Iran.
  • Iran bought 18 missiles from North Korea, and learned advanced ballistic technology from Russia, China and Pakistan.
  • Saudi Arabia, Turkey and India, among other nations, oppose Iran’s nuclear program.
  • Dating back to Shah Reza Pahlavi, Iran has planned to go nuclear for energy-generating purposes.
  • Iran’s most important strategic and diplomatic relationships are with China, Russia and Pakistan, all of which have supplied it with nuclear technology.
  • Israel is Iran’s public enemy, but it is not the reason Tehran wants the bomb.
  • The dangerous situation with Iran shows that the international community lacks rules and enforcement.

Summary

No Compromises

Western diplomats were caught off guard in 2005 when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a hard-line militant, was elected president of Iran. At first, diplomats tried to negotiate with him. He rejected their approach. When he called for Israel’s eradication, U.N. Secretary General Kofi Anan called off his visit to Tehran. As these moves show, the West does not understand whom it is dealing with at all.

“Since the end of 1980s, Tehran’s relentless determination to obtain nuclear equipment and materials...has intrigued more than one European capital.”

Ahmadinejad was elected to complete Iran’s nuclear weapons development program. He was not empowered to negotiate with anyone. To keep this program under way and deflect international pressure, Iran may have fomented the 2006 war in Lebanon. Yet while Iran’s citizens are better educated and trained than citizens in any other Middle Eastern country except Israel, they are not part of the governing apparatus. Instead, a religious regime governs Iran, and Ahmadinejad voices its ideas. The country is developing its nuclear options as it simultaneously confronts its enemies and engages in lengthy discussions to forestall any retaliatory measures.

“If Iran wanted to develop a nuclear energy program, the Europeans never tried to prevent it.”

The Europeans, Americans and Russians say a nuclear Iran would threaten their interests. Yet Western democracies have repeated past mistakes and been unwilling to confront Iran, an openly aggressive nation. Western Europe seems paralyzed, U.S. policy is stagnant, the Russians feign neutrality and the Chinese hide behind the Russians. Iran’s supporters, like Pakistan and South Africa, pursue a more opaque, surreptitious policy.

“Until now, Tehran has paid no price at all for its provocative policy.”

Iran already faces major domestic economic problems and the risk of international sanctions, so why does it want to pursue a nuclear program? One possible reason is that it wants nuclear power for purely civilian purposes. If so, Iran would not need enrichment and uranium-reprocessing technology. Nuclear reactors for energy purposes can be obtained readily from third parties, which is how Finland, Sweden and South Korea got atomic power plants. Russia is already building a reactor for Iran.

“Deterrence presupposes a sound knowledge of the enemy, but also some kind of mutual recognition.”

Further, if Iran sought nuclear fuel for peaceful purposes, it did not have to hide this project from 1985 to 2002, when Iranian exiles brought it to light. In 1985, when Iran fought Iraq, no civilian reactor was even under construction. Another possible reason that Iran wants nuclear capability is to bargain with the U.S., Germany, France or Great Britain. However, if so, why did the clerics nominate Ahmadinejad, a radical who is not known as a negotiator, to be president? A third theory is that Iran wants an atomic bomb, not just nuclear energy. This would explain why it misled IAEA inspectors, used its military to conduct enrichment research and developed a ballistic missile program. At the same time, Iran pursued a clandestine program to purchase critical components worldwide. There is some question about Iran’s technical capabilities, but since this project is so secretive, no one can accurately explain its progress and development.

“From the mid-1990s, the Europeans were aware of the possibility that this civil nuclear energy program might enable Iran to obtain expertise and technology from the Russians, other than those necessary for purely peaceful purposes.”

By 2006, Iran had the capability to produce uranium metal and was operating a gas centrifuge plant. These are advanced steps, but its ability to deliver ballistic missiles is still questionable. Iran bought 18 sophisticated missiles from North Korea, and learned advanced ballistic technology from Russia and Pakistan. Now Iran’s most crucial strategic, diplomatic relationships are with China, Russia and Pakistan, all of which have supplied it with nuclear technology.

“The Russians, no amateurs when it comes to intelligence, probably have an interesting dossier on Iran’s nuclear programme.”

Iran’s strategy has been to stall by engaging in diplomatic talks while it presses ahead technologically. In 2005, an important mullah said Iran would not negotiate any compromise in its ability to produce nuclear-enriched materials. Yet, he said, it fears U.N. Security Council economic sanctions. Since Iran is moving quickly, it should have enough enriched materials to build an explosive device within two years. Politically, Iran has worked to become a leader of the nonaligned (that is, unaffiliated with a major power bloc) countries, yet Saudi Arabia, Turkey and India oppose its nuclear program.

Inaction in Europe

Dating back to Shah Reza Pahlavi, Iran had plans for nuclear energy. Europe was interested since Iran has vast natural energy resources, and was exporting them to China, India, Pakistan and South Africa. In 1983, Iraq bombed Iran’s Bushar power station during the Iran-Iraq war. After the war, Tehran asked Germany and France to rebuild it, but both refused. Finally, in 2005, Russia agreed to rebuild the plant and supply its reactors.

“An Iranian nuclear bomb could...cost a lot more than a military operation by calling into question not only America’s entire ‘Greater Middle Eastern’ policy, but also its deterrent capability in the region.”

As Iran built its nuclear infrastructure, ministers from France, Britain and Germany engaged in a decade of “constructive dialogue” to curtail Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but they did not produce significant results. The Europeans tried this initiative for three reasons:

  1. To prove the beneficial results of diplomacy through “effective multilateralism” – Part of this approach was the ability to intercept vehicles carrying nuclear parts. Yet when Iran twice broke its commitments to Europe, no penalties were imposed.
  2. To show a united front, which did not exist during the Iran-Iraq War – Their methods differ, but all three oppose a nuclear Iran since it would destabilize the Middle East. In July 2006, all three adopted U.N. Security Council Resolution 1696, listing consequences if Iran violated its basic provisions.
  3. They felt threatened by Iran’s nuclear intentions – If the E.U. expands to include Turkey, Europe’s interests will be directly linked to this region’s developments. Worse, the missiles in Iran’s planned program would be able to hit European cities. This would create a major threat to European stability.

U.S. and Russian Policies

Iran has posed serious problems to the U.S. since 1979, when it was surprised by the shah’s fall and the subsequent break in diplomatic relations. Iran supports Al Qaeda, Hizbullah and Hamas; it works with Syria to foment instability in Iraq and Afghanistan. It promotes Israel’s eradication. Yet despite its rhetoric, Iran could not withstand a U.S. military attack. If this threat developed, Iran would suffer a political and security upheaval. Meanwhile, the U.S. always has opposed Tehran’s atomic efforts and must maintain the credibility of its nuclear deterrence policy. Some argue that the U.S. is waiting for European diplomatic efforts to fail, yet that is already evident, and the U.S. has not yet confronted Tehran about its Security Council violations.

“Nuclear cooperation with China is one of the most significant alliances Iran has established, alongside those with Russia and Pakistan.”

Russia has a complex relationship with Iran, and has supplied it with nuclear technology and personnel. Iran purchased Soviet military equipment. A Russian official signed an agreement to build an ultracentrifuge facility, but it was cancelled in 1998 after the U.S. objected. From 2005 to 2007, Russia made other deals with Iran concerning ballistic missile technology, yet many of those have never come to light.

“Egypt fears an Iranian nuclear bomb, which would be all the more worrying since Iran has never been an ally of the Arab countries in general or of Egypt in particular.”

Since Russia hoped to benefit by providing nuclear fuel and expertise for a civilian reactor, it played along with Tehran’s waiting game. Meanwhile, Tehran was pursuing its full-blown military program. In the end, Russia has both helped and tried to rein in Tehran, but both countries could be considered in violation of nonproliferation agreements. Since Russia has been integral to Iran’s nuclear program, it has special intelligence about secret locations and technology. Western sources believe Russia knows Tehran’s true intentions, but has been vague about them. Russia’s poor relationship with the U.S. has only made it closer with Iran. Russia may be betting it can complete other large nuclear projects and become Iran’s strategic partner.

“As regards Riyadh’s position on this matter, the situation is pretty clear: Washington has created a mess in Iraq and should not pull out before fixing it.”

Iran’s other attractive potential partner is China, which has a huge need for energy complemented by its ability to sell Iran military equipment. Both countries oppose the West and want to control Middle East oil-shipping lanes. International inspectors have witnessed Chinese scientists and technicians exiting nuclear sites when they arrive and disappearing until they left. China also signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with Iran in 1990 and 1992, which was not disclosed to the IAEA. Iran also may be following the Chinese political model of encouraging economic liberalism while carrying out hard-line political repression. In turn, China is using the same stalling tactics it employed when the U.N. challenged North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. China has supplied the Iranians with Silkworm missiles, guidance systems, radar and an automated air defense system, some of it using American technology that was passed on to the Chinese.

“The nuclear links between Iran and South Africa are complex and mystifying.”

Pakistan is another ambiguous ally. The Taliban are friendly with Pakistan, but have strategic and ideological differences with Iran. In the mid-1990s, Pakistan’s Abdul Qadeer Khan secretly gave Iran blueprints (which he had stolen from a facility in the Netherlands) for industrial centrifuges that were needed to process uranium. Pakistan and Iran were at odds in the late 1990s, but this did not interfere with the transfer of nuclear equipment. Pakistan is unwilling to disclose its real relations with Iran, since that would also mean disclosing its nuclear ties with Iran and China.

“Israel, it must be stressed, is not the reason why Tehran wants to acquire the nuclear bomb.”

India’s connection with Iran is hundreds of years old. The two nations have the world’s largest Shia Muslim populations and an ambiguous relationship with each other. Iran needs India to counterbalance its strong relationship with Pakistan, while India needs Iran’s energy resources. To wean India away from Iran, the U.S. has been moving to supply India with a civilian nuclear reactor. India is pivotal to the balance between the U.S. and China. When the U.S. and India advanced their bilateral relations, China countered by signing an agreement with Pakistan.

“An Israeli intervention against Iran, especially if successful, would probably make a lot of people happy, for nobody really has any idea how to resolve the problem.”

Israel is a primary enemy of Iran, but it is not the reason Tehran wants the bomb. Israel gives Iran an excuse for helping its Arab neighbors, which masks Iran’s regional ambitions, especially against other Arab Gulf states. Israel has a nuclear deterrent capability and superior conventional military forces. Given Iran’s stated goal of eliminating Israel, it fears that if Iran gets the bomb other Arab nations will develop nuclear programs. Israel’s current response is diplomatic. It exchanges information with all concerned parties. Yet many in the West and in Arab capitals would be glad if Israel settled the Iranian nuclear problem militarily, but few would admit it. Israel may be forced to act alone if Iran makes significant progress toward developing a bomb, if diplomacy breaks down, or if the U.S. lacks the desire to become involved. If a confrontation seemed probable, Iran likely would attack Israel first using terrorist attacks or its Shehab 3 missiles. This would force the confrontation. A precursor to an Israeli attack on Iran may already have taken place when Israel bombed Hizbullah forces in Lebanon in 2006.

“Iran presents the international community with one of its greatest long-term challenges.”

Egypt’s position on Iran is even more confusing, since they have never been allies. However, Egypt has often remained silent when the U.N. could have sanctioned or penalized Iran, especially in May 2005. Egyptian diplomats have adopted a defensive stance when asked about the country’s position toward Iran, for several reasons. First, Egypt is opposed to democracy in the Middle East and does not want to publically be considered a friend of the U.S. Egypt also wants a larger international role, so it may wish to look evenhanded in the U.N.’s multilateral debates. Egypt also may be undertaking its own experiments in nuclear development, and does not want to call attention to them. Yet Egypt and Iran still are not close and view each other suspiciously.

Iran’s other main rival is Saudi Arabia. The two nations have increasingly been at odds since the 1980s, when Riyadh sided with Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq War. However, the two nations have worked together on oil issues since the 1990s. In 2005, Riyadh publicly criticized Iran’s nuclear ambitions and it has stated that it has no any atomic facilities on its soil. However, the Saudis have funded Pakistan’s nuclear program and their intelligence services work together.

South Africa, which is nonaligned, also has been Iran’s partner, though the nature and motives of their relationship are unclear. Tehran purchased uranium from South Africa in the 1980s. South Africa also has experience hiding its nuclear weapons from international inspectors: In 1991, South Africa admitted that it produced six nuclear missiles without being detected. Some fear that it gave Iran this knowledge.

While Iran’s nuclear plans continue, the implications of a nuclear Iran are dangerous and far- reaching. For instance, Iran could easily forge new alliances and alter the strategic order of the Middle East. In any case, Iran’s ongoing nuclear program demonstrates that the international community has almost no rules or enforcement in place to deal with a renegade nation.

About the Author

Therese Delpech has directed strategic studies at the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) since 1997. She is a researcher at the Center for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI) and a commissioner of the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission.

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Iran and the Bomb

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